Communicating Uncertainty to Non-Experts: A Good Problem To Tackle
"Uncertainty in geosciences is an inherent part of scientific processes and assessments, propagating throughout the entire workflow (Pérez-Díaz et al., 2020). As scientists, we are used to seeing error bars, confidence intervals, or statistical indicators that tell us how robust our models or measurements are (Padilla et al., 2021). The challenge arises when we need to communicate these scientific results outside our circle of peers. We may hesitate, worrying that non-experts will misunderstand or misinterpret our uncertainty statements, and therefore prefer to omit them from reports or presentations. This hesitation becomes even stronger when our audience includes stakeholders who must make important decisions, such as those made during a crisis. In this case, the pressure to 'not get it wrong' increases. Yet withholding uncertainty can have worse consequences: choosing not to communicate uncertainty means accepting the risk that decision makers will have to guess, instead of using our best (though imperfect) judgment." See the key messages from a EGU General Assembly 2025 session on May 1.
Communicating Uncertainty to Non-Experts: A Good Problem To Tackle
"Uncertainty in geosciences is an inherent part of scientific processes and assessments, propagating throughout the entire workflow (Pérez-Díaz et al., 2020). As scientists, we are used to seeing error bars, confidence intervals, or statistical indicators that tell us how robust our models or measurements are (Padilla et al., 2021). The challenge arises when we need to communicate these scientific results outside our circle of peers. We may hesitate, worrying that non-experts will misunderstand or misinterpret our uncertainty statements, and therefore prefer to omit them from reports or presentations. This hesitation becomes even stronger when our audience includes stakeholders who must make important decisions, such as those made during a crisis. In this case, the pressure to 'not get it wrong' increases. Yet withholding uncertainty can have worse consequences: choosing not to communicate uncertainty means accepting the risk that decision makers will have to guess, instead of using our best (though imperfect) judgment." See the key messages from a EGU General Assembly 2025 session on May 1.
Iris Schneider Pérez and Solmaz Mohadjer